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Kunlun Zhang Wei commented on the GDP in the first quarter: unsatisfied, the trend in the special period is more important

KunlunZhangWeicommentedontheGDPinthefirstquarter:unsatisfied,thetrendinthespecialperiodismoreimportant InthefirstquarteroftheeconomicdatareleasedbytheNationalBureauofStatisticsonthe17th,China’sGDPfellby6inthefirstquarterduetothenewcrownepidemic.8%,expectedtodeclineby6%,thepreviousgrowthincreasedby6%,andthecompany’szero-yeardeclineby15%.8%,fixedassetinvestmentfellby16.1%,industrialaddedvaluedecreasedby1.1%.Intuitivelyspeaking,althoughtheeconomicdataenteredthenegativerange,itwasa”bullout”,drivenbythepositivepolicies,theChineseeconomybegantorebirthinNirvanainthesecondquarter.Weknowthattheepidemichasthemostobviousimpactonthesecondaryandtertiaryindustries.ItwillalwaysbeChina,andtheoverseasglobalindustrialchainhasalsobeenhithard.Belowthis,Chinaimplementedstrictisolationandepidemicpreventionintheearlystage,andsacrificeditssocialproductioninthefirstquarterjusttoretainitsstrength.Astheso-called”longpainisworsethanshortpain”.SinceMarch,thedomesticepidemicsituationhasgraduallycalmeddown,andsocialproductionhasgraduallyreturnedtonormal.Althoughtherepeatedreductionandoperatingratesarenotexactlythesame,theamountofsocialfinancingandfiscalexpenditureintheearlydayshaslaidthefoundationforthesubsequenteconomicrecovery.Sincetheoutbreakofthenewcrownepidemic,Chinahasissuedanumberofmonetaryandfiscalpoliciestocombattheepidemic.Amongthem,thefiscalpolicyismainlyaimedattherescueoftheepidemic,whilethemonetarypolicyismainlyaimedattherescueofenterprises,toensurethattheenterpriseis”alive”,andwillnotreducewagesandlayoffs.Judgingfromthecurrentsituation,theearlypolicyintroductionhasachievedpositiveresults.Althoughtheeconomicgrowthrateinthefirstquarterwasnegative,theeconomicdatainMarchhasstabilizedcomparedwithFebruary.Inaspecialperiod,thetrendismoreimportantthantheresult.Manyscholarsbelievethatoncetheepidemiccalmsdown,itwillcontinuetoboosttheeconomyandachieveeconomicgoalsthroughhigh-intensitypolicystimuli.Thiskindofthinkingisgenerallycorrect,buttherearesomedeviationswhenyouthinkaboutit.Fromthepointofviewofstimulusintensity,toomuch”bigmoney”wasusedintheearlystage,includingmultiplecurrencyreductionsandinterestratecutsindisguise,aswellastrillion-scalebailoutsinfinance.Traditionalandtraditionalmacro-policyhasconsumedtoomuchenergy,andthepolicyspaceleftbehindmaybelimited.Interestrates,theprevioustemporaryRRRcutsandtargetedinterestratecutshave”almostwipedout”themonetarypolicyexpectedbythemarket,andrecentlythere-legislatorscameforwardandstatedthatthebenchmarkinterestratedistributionisthe”ballaststone”oftheinterestratesystem.Thenormalorderofthemarket,topreventirrationalcompetitionfromplayinganimportantrole,mustberetainedforalongtime.Therefore,asfarasmonetarypolicyitselfisconcerned,ithasbecomesomewhat”limited”.Subsequentcontinuousandcontinuousreleaseofwaterisunlikelytobeaveryobviousexample.China’scurrentdepositbenchmarkinterestrateisalreadyverylow(currentlyoneyearis15%),butbecausebanksmostlyadoptdepositinterestratefloatingmethodstoabsorbdeposits,thegeneraldepositinterestrateismostlyaround2%.Thecurrentinflationarypressureisnotsmall,andtheMarchCPIindexisstillat4.3%.Thismeansthattheactualincreasefacedbydomesticpeopleisnegative,whichfurtherreducesthespaceforChinatograduallyincreaseinterestrates.Inaddition,theconsumptionandwasteofdomesticfinancialresourcesareveryobvious.JudgingfromthefiscalrevenueandexpenditureforJanuary-February2020announcedonMarch24,thenationalgeneralpublicbudgetincome3.5trillionyuan,down9everyyear.9%;ofwhich,thedeclineinFebruaryreached21.4%isthelargestmonthlydeclinesincethehistoricalrecord.ThefiscalrevenueinMarchisstillnotoptimistic,becausetheshutdowncausedbytheepidemicwasmoresignificantinFebruary,then,inMarch,Iamafraidthattheentirefiscalrevenuesituationwillhaveadeeperreplacement.Intermsoffiscalexpenditure,Chinaiscurrentlyinastateof”moneytightness”.Becauseoftheconcentrationofdomesticeffortstofighttheepidemicinthepreviousstage,alotofmoneywasspent.FromJanuarytoFebruary,fourofthenationalpublicfiscalexpendituresachievedpositivegrowth,namelyhealthandwellness,debtinterestpayment,energyconservationandenvironmentalprotection,andsocialsecurityandemployment.Amongthem,thelargestgrowthrateofhealthandhealthwas22.7%.Thisisthemostintuitivereflectionofthefinancialexpenditureoftheepidemic.Withthedecreaseinincomeandtheincreaseinthesupportof”anti-epidemic”,thenextissueisthelackoftasteinthefinancialaspectofammunition,andtheneedtosolvetheproblemof”findingmoney”.Therefore,thefollow-upmacrostimuluswillprobablybemorecautious,andtheopportunitiesfor”bigmoney”areverylimited.Fromamarketpointofview,thenegativeeffectsofthisfavorablepolicyandtheimpactoftheepidemichavereacheda”tightbalance”-themainwavesofthenegativeandthepositivehavepassed,nomatterhowbadtheepidemicimpactis,itwillnotbebad,andthepositiveofthepolicystimulus.Intheearlystage,ittooktoomuchenergy,andthenbothmonetaryandfiscalpolicieswillbemorecautious.Thereisabsolutelynocontradictionbetweentheexpectationsoftherecoveryoftheeconomictargetinthesecondandthirdquarters.Afterall,thestrongstimulusintheearlyperiodhaslaidthefoundationforeconomicstabilization.Weareexpectedtoseethetrendofthesubsequentcontinuousmacrodataturnbetter.Finally,forachievinghigh-leveleconomicgoals,theauthorbelievesthateffortscanbemadeinthreeareas:oneistoexpanddomesticdemandandworkonconsumption.Reasonablyincreasepublicconsumption,andtransferpolicytoolsfromtraditionalfinancesandcurrenciestothebasicincomesystem.Itispossibletoimitatethecompensationforallpeopleabroadandintroduceaseriesof“consumervoucher”stimulusmeasuresinduecourse.Atthesametime,wemustvigorouslymaintainsufficientliquiditytoensurethattheenterpriseis”alive”andthattheenterprisewillnotcutwagesandlayoffstaffduetotheepidemicsituation.Afterall,”stableemployment”isaninevitablepromotionfee.Thesecondistoincreasetheeffectiveinvestmentratio,reasonablyexpandthescaleofinvestment,fullymobilizetheenthusiasmofprivateinvestment,andacceleratetheconstructionofmajorprojectsoflargescale.Inparticular,PPPisexpectedtoaccelerate.Thethirdistoincreaseinvestmentinmostfields,includingpublichealthdirectlyrelatedtotheepidemic,emergencymaterialsecurity,and”newinfrastructure”.Text/KunlunHealthAssetManagementChiefMacroandMicroZhangWeiEditorChenLiproofreadingChenDiyan

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[How to make mustard dumplings]_Mustard stuffing_Correct practices

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Tuobang (002139): Repurchase demonstrates confidence, intelligent controller business development efforts to speed up

Tuobang (002139): Repurchase demonstrates confidence, intelligent controller business development efforts to speed up The event company plans to use its own funds or self-raised funds to repurchase the company’s shares in a centralized bidding transaction. The repurchase scale is not less than RMB 20 million (inclusive) and not more than RMB 40 million (inclusive).RMB 7. […]

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Peeping into N secrets in his heart

Peeping into N secrets in his heart Women hang love on their lips, men love you hard to open their hearts, which is a big difference between the sexes. Men need to be “thick” and “the prime minister can support the boat.” There is hardship! The “protective umbrella” had to be held up. The surface […]

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Cost-effective dietary regimen for winter

Cost-effective dietary regimen for winter In the winter, many people are facing the pressure of the year and their bodies are exhausted. I wanted to make up for the prescription in the winter, but seeing the price of Chinese medicinal materials rise, their “pockets” are shrinking, and some people are hesitant. As the saying goes, […]

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Several myths of novice practicing yoga

Several myths of novice practicing yoga Because the popular yoga practice methods and asanas have more harmful content than the stars in the sky, countless, it is difficult to come together. However, because of the injuries to the victims of yoga practice, how to prevent yoga practitioners from opening wrong methodsAsana work is also urgent. […]

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Sticky rice is easier to absorb than rice

Sticky rice is easier to absorb than rice Most people think that glutinous rice is difficult to digest, but according to the attributes of traditional Chinese medicine, glutinous rice is warm and has the benefit of nourishing the spleen and stomach, then glutinous rice can warm the stomach. So, does glutinous rice nourish or destroy […]

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Studies show that eating apples has better anticancer effects without peeling

Studies show that eating apples has better anticancer effects without peeling There is no doubt that Apple has the effect of fighting cancer. The British “Daily Mail” recently reported that American scientists have recently discovered that the secret of apple’s anti-cancer is hidden in the peel.   Multiple tests performed by University of Wisconsin scientists have […]